Bernstein: OpenAI's Computing Spending Could Reach $614 Billion by 2030

Bernstein analyst Mark Moerdler estimates that the infrastructure spending corresponding to the computing partnership agreements disclosed by OpenAI could cumulatively reach $614 billion by 2030, lower than the widely cited $750 billion in the market. This estimate assumes that all identified contracts are executed as planned, but actual spending may be reduced or delayed due to data center construction delays, project cancellations, and adjustments in hardware procurement arrangements. Annual spending is expected to peak at $184 billion in 2031. Bernstein notes that OpenAI's agreements with Oracle, Microsoft, and Amazon are approximately $300 billion, $250 billion, and $138 billion, respectively, with terms typically ranging from five to eight years; the agreement with CoreWeave has a cap of $22.4 billion but does not represent guaranteed revenue. The firm believes that the contract risks faced by large cloud service providers in the short term are limited, and the real concern is that specialized computing suppliers, reliant on high-cost financing and ongoing leasing demand, may face greater pressure once the current tight supply of computing resources eases.